Senegal faces key expertise decisions in its seek for the optimum gas-to-power strategy

Senegal’s domestic gas reserves will be mainly used to produce electrical energy. Authorities expect that home gas infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there isn’t any delay. The monetization of those vital energy assets is on the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the economic impact of the varied gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very completely different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very important system value variations between the two main gas-to-power applied sciences the country is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in fact much better suited than combined cycle fuel turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gas assets cost-effectively, the examine reveals. Total value variations between the two technologies might reach as much as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on situations.
Two competing and very totally different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art vitality combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy eventualities to establish the fee optimum method to ship new generation capability for a specific nation, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current important cost differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different when it comes to the profiles during which they can operate. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it can operate at 90% load issue always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE technology can function effectively in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other generation technologies that may make up the country’s vitality mix.
In specific our examine reveals that when operating in an electrical energy network of restricted measurement corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably increase the network capability can be extremely pricey in all potential scenarios.
Cost variations between the applied sciences are explained by numerous factors. First of all, scorching climates negatively impression the output of fuel generators greater than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated access to cheap domestic fuel, the working prices turn out to be less impactful than the investment prices. In other phrases, as a end result of low gasoline costs decrease operating costs, it is financially sound for the country to rely on ICE power vegetation, that are inexpensive to build.
Technology modularity additionally performs a key position. Skyrocket is expected to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capacity every year to find a way to meet the rising demand. This is much lower than the capability of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that have to be in-built one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine power vegetation, then again, are modular, which means they can be constructed precisely as and when the nation wants them, and further extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops on the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as much as 240 million dollars of additional price for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences can even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to construct new renewable energy capacity throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The growth of gas infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not unusual, causing fuel provide disruptions that may have a huge financial impression on the operation of CCGT crops.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only last yr, significant fuel supply points have triggered shutdowns at some of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power crops. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a continuing provide of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing a great strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile working profile, they have been capable of maintain a a lot higher level of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of two years delay within the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to invest into gasoline engines, the worth of fuel delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in further price.
Whichever means you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas technology capability will minimize the entire cost of electrical energy in Senegal in all attainable situations. If Senegal is to satisfy electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal means, no much less than 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.
Share

Leave a Comment